Thursday, June 28, 2012

The Supreme Court Might Kill 1.1 Million People Today

A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation:

Assuming the Senate Bill, the 95% of the nonelderly population of the USA (or 86.7% of the total) would have insurance by 2021.  Assuming 325 million people in 2021 (1), and 82% coverage without the legislation (2), an extra 36.6 million people stand to be covered (this number is pretty close to the one estimated by the CBO-- 34 million (3)).

Assuming the uninsured face a 3% increased mortality rate over eight years (5), overturning this legislation will be responsible for roughly 1.1 million deaths from 2021-2029.

Citations below the fold.

(1) 2021 325,239,000 

(2) Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2011 -- 13.3%

(3) CBO and JCT estimate that PPACA and the Reconciliation Act will increase the 
number of nonelderly Americans with health insurance by about 32 million in 2016 
and about 34 million in 2021. About 95 percent of legal nonelderly residents will 
have insurance coverage in 2021, compared with a projected share of about 82 percent in the absence of that legislation (and an estimated 83 percent currently).

(4) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the percentage of nonelderly legal residents without insurance would drop from 17 percent in 2010 to 4 percent in 2016 under the House bill, and 6 percent under the Senate bill. The Senate bill would still leave about 23 million uninsured people, about a third of whom would be unauthorized immigrants. 

(5) A 2004 study published in the journal Health Affairs looked at data for those age 55 to 64 in the Health and Retirement Survey. It controlled for socioeconomic factors and found the uninsured in the group had a 3 percent higher risk of dying over an eight-year period.

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