Thursday, June 28, 2012

The Supreme Court Might Kill 1.1 Million People Today

A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation:

Assuming the Senate Bill, the 95% of the nonelderly population of the USA (or 86.7% of the total) would have insurance by 2021.  Assuming 325 million people in 2021 (1), and 82% coverage without the legislation (2), an extra 36.6 million people stand to be covered (this number is pretty close to the one estimated by the CBO-- 34 million (3)).

Assuming the uninsured face a 3% increased mortality rate over eight years (5), overturning this legislation will be responsible for roughly 1.1 million deaths from 2021-2029.

Citations below the fold.