Monday, April 07, 2008

Baseball Stats: Part 2

Just for fun, I graphed out some 2007 data from players relevant to today's game.  Let's start with Adrian Beltre and Daniel Cabrera:

So.  What do we learn here?

First of all, right-handed Beltre doesn't chase as many low and away sliders as you might expect.  If he's going to get beat by a pitch, he's probably going to get beat by something up and in.  According to the other graph, this is something that right-handed Cabrera likes to do.  Expect strikeouts.

Cabrera also has excellent control and consistency around the edges of the strike zone. He stays low, and if he misses, he doesn't miss by much.

Here's another thing-- Cabrera doesn't give up home runs on the outsides of the plate.  Compare him to the M's starter, Carlos Silva:

If Beltre's going to hit a home run off of Cabrera, then, it's probably going to have 
be within that small central margin.  But he's got a much better shot at it than Richie Sexson, who swings a bit more freely:

I'm not using any pitch f/x data here, just location.  There's a lot more to be said when taking break and deception into account.  And obviously, pitchers (and catchers) are aware of these types of batting tendencies, and the smart ones will find a way to tilt the odds in their favor (note to self:  It would be interesting to analyze a pitcher's intelligence in facing different batters.  Maybe this will be a future update).

1 comment:

Gregg said...

Alex, I need you to explain these graphs. I tried to figure it out but I struck out (get it?).