Set up an active GitHub repo with a single bash command

There should never be any barrier between thinking of something and putting it on GitHub.

With that in mind, here's a very short bash function + alias I use to get a repo up as quickly as possible.

# github
function new_github_repo(){
    if [ -z "$1" ]
        then
            echo "Usage: github [name]"
        else
            USER='YOUR_GIT_USERNAME'
            curl -u "$USER" https://api.github.com/user/repos -d '{"name":"'$1'"}'
            cd ~
            mkdir $1
            cd $1
            touch README.md
            git init
            git add -A
            git commit -am "Initial commit."
            git remote add origin git@github.com:$USER/$1.git
            git push origin master
    fi
}
alias github='new_github_repo'

Iron Blogger!

Great news-- I made it through the rigorous application process, and have been accepted to Iron Blogger Boston!

A big part of why I'm doing this is to participate in the One Cool Thing Per Week (OCTPW) initiative.  Briefly, this is something I just made up where I present one short project per week that I find "cool".  Most of these will be software projects, with a few hardware and maker things thrown in.  I encourage others to join me on this endeavor.

Outside of OCTPW, I will be posting my usual smörgåsbord of random observations, factoids, and anal-expulsive cynicsm for future archaeologists to puzzle over.

On a side note, I'm going to be using Stypi as a word processor for all of my future posts.  If you haven't used it, you should!  It's one of my favorite examples of featureset minimalism on the web.  Very unix-philosophy-y.  

(I do wish I could synchronize it with my blogging software, though.  Anyone?)

Mint.com running total bookmarklet

Drag this link into your bookmarks bar, and click it when you're looking at your transactions on mint.com!

Annotated code below.

A simple one-liner for repeatedly querying a remote XPath from the command line!

I often want to monitor a single element on a page, but I don't feel like firing up python to make it happen.

Using a tool called xidel, this command will write the results of an xpath query to a file every 300 seconds:

yes "xidel YOUR_URL_HERE -e \"YOUR_XPATH_HERE\" 2> /dev/null; sleep 300"|sh > output.txt

Here's a working example:

yes "xidel http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/ubuntu-edge -e \"/html//p[@id='big-goal']\" 2> /dev/null; sleep 300"|sh > output.txt

The Best Terminal Font

Misc-Fixed-6x13, a.k.a misc-fixed, a.k.a. "Fixed", is the best font for the terminal.  I can offer no scientific proof.  In my eyes, however, it is the most balanced and correctly-proportioned monospace pixel font, regardless of availability or license.

Here is a link to its current home.  Here is a link to a TrueType (.ttf) version I created this morning.

The Rotary VOIP Phone

This is a project I've had brewing ever since the extraordinary Raspberry Pi project was announced.  It's a fully-functional VOIP device cased in an old Western Electric rotary phone!  You can use the dial to place calls, and talk via the receiver.  Calls end when the receiver is placed back on the hook.

The Supreme Court Might Kill 1.1 Million People Today

A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation:

Assuming the Senate Bill, the 95% of the nonelderly population of the USA (or 86.7% of the total) would have insurance by 2021.  Assuming 325 million people in 2021 (1), and 82% coverage without the legislation (2), an extra 36.6 million people stand to be covered (this number is pretty close to the one estimated by the CBO-- 34 million (3)).

Assuming the uninsured face a 3% increased mortality rate over eight years (5), overturning this legislation will be responsible for roughly 1.1 million deaths from 2021-2029.

Citations below the fold.

My Face When Economic Data Over Time Isn't Adjusted for Inflation

Two Serious Questions

How often do you click "Follow us on Facebook" links from a company's website?

How different is this from a web ring?

Thank you John Carmack

A note about something I just realized.

The most anticipated computer game ten years ago was Quake 3.  It was one of the few core games that seemed guaranteed to transcend the core market-- Gamers would see it as the next way to compete.  Normal people would play it casually with friends.  Geeks would play it for the dynamic lighting and curved surfaces.

When the demo was released, the Mac and Linux versions came out first, which sent an enormous amount of Windows users scrambling.  Because this was years before installing Linux convenient in any way, it forced a great number of people to learn about booting from floppies, partitioning, filesystems, the command line, installing proprietary video drivers, and a host of other Linux-y skills.

It took me four days to get to the point where I could even run the game, but I got to enjoy it three days before my friends.  And it set me on a path that I've been on for ten years.

Thanks, John!

An Open Firefox Feature Request

I love tree-style tabs.  It suits my [scatterbrained] working style to have 50+ tabs open at a time.  I almost always middle-click links to put them in a new tab. This way, I can leave parent pages completely untouched while I go off on tangents, compare notes, etc.  I eventually return to the page I started on and continue on my merry way.

Increasingly, links no longer point to discrete pages but DHTML elements that are meant to change the appearance of the parent page.  They can't be opened in a new tab, and there's no reassurance that they won't mangle the page beyond recognition.  Not only that, but they're hard to identify-- Generally their destination ends in an anchor tag (i.e. "#content"), but other than that they are indistinguishable from normal off-page links.

I propose that middle clicking these links opens an overlay that can be easily closed.  This way, the damage can be undone, and the browsing experience can continue uninterrupted.

Well, that was an experience

This morning, I decided to take a short detour to Radio Shack to pick up some magnet wire.  While the decision seemed perfectly reasonable at the time, it lead to a very unreasonable series of events-- Starting with a bike ride across town to visit three different stores, and finally culminating inside a local machine shop where a toothless, semi-drunk store employee wrapped five feet of wire around a pencil and gave it to me free of charge. 

It's not that I'm upset about the day's events per se but the confused expressions on people's faces when I asked to buy such a common item.  Magnet wire is in virtually everything.   I concluded two things:

1)  I visited three very bad electronics stores.
2)  Tinkering with electronics is not as common as it should be.

In my dreams

Last night I had a dream that my parents had chartered an Antonov 225 cargo plane for a family trip to Pierre, South Dakota.

The plane had been massively upgraded.  Inside, it featured essential creature comforts like champagne, wi-fi, and a racquetball court.  The engines (and structural framework) had also been upgraded at great cost to allow for supersonic flight.

This unfortunately meant that I would reach destination of Pierre much faster.

The Most Disturbing Part About Twitter

...is that suddenly people like John Cleese, Shaq, and Ted Nugent have a better understanding of an applied technology than I do.

Jason Belmonte, Bowling Radical

Two days ago, an Australian man named Jason Belmonte walked away with the PBA tour title.  He's the first person to win using a two-handed technique:

Apparently, involving both hands allows him to achieve a greater amount of spin (630rpm versus the average professional's 400rpm), creating a significantly more forceful pin strike.

It's amazing to me that a sport as old and as simple as bowling can be revolutionized by single, somewhat obvious innovation.  I suppose Jason Belmonte can now join the ranks of Dick Fosbury, Rick Barry, Pete Gogolak, and other sports luminaries who did things the "wrong" way to great effect.

Google, we hardly knew ye

News broke today of Google's latest wave of layoffs-- 200 employees in marketing and sales.  This adds to the 100 layoffs in recruitment and the 40 in the now-defunct radio program.  So, 340 since January. 

The company wrote:

"In some areas we've created overlapping organizations," Google said. "We over-invested in some areas in preparation for the growth trends we were experiencing at the time."

Two years ago, the phrase "overlapping organizations" would have been unthinkable in the same breath as "Google".  Now, it's hardly a surprise-- In fact, their stock actually rallied today despite the announcement.  Google, once organized into perfect and discrete elements, now sprawls into social networking sites and blogs-- a sort of slow bloodletting for its formerly iconic brand image.

Its core applications like Mail, Maps, and Docs have been suffering at the hands of the Labs, Gadgets, Themes, Gears, "Older Version", and other features that have added complexity without improving extensibility.  What's worse is that these features are totally inconsistent-- Labs and Themes only work for Mail, Gadgets only works for Sites and iGoogle, Offline only works in certain browsers at certain times.  Of course, none of these things work in Google Apps. 

Confused yet?  I am.

I don't think it's premature to say that the Google is finished as an innovator.  Many large tech companies have followed a similar arc:  A single great brand that spawns an entire culture, leading to the hiring of young talent, bonuses, a blockbuster IPO, and years of industry dominance, followed by a slow dissolution of the brand as the company grabs at new and seductive revenue streams.

Obviously, this isn't the end of Google.  With the sheer amount of talent and money they have locked up, they'll continue to release new and sometimes excellent products.  The game-changers, though, are all used up.

Let there be light

Those of us who have lived in the Northwest know the importance of sunlight in our energy, mood, and productivity.  Even if you hasn't self-diagnosed with Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD, appropriately), there's no doubt that summer hours are a welcome transition.  Google trends shows in the greater United States, searches for "depression" are about 50% more common in the winter than in the summer.

According to this map of solar insulation, the Northwest is perhaps the darkest part of the mainland US during the winter:



While I don't know much about the biology of sunlight, I do know that the Northwest has a reputation for chemical imbalances.  It manifest in our music, politics, propondance of serial killers, our glut of cafes and bars.  Individuals tend gravitate towards opposite ends of the extreme:  A long, deep, brooding in the winter, followed by bouts of impulsiveness in the summer.  Loathing self-desctruction combined with fitful creativity.

What's more is that during the late summer, it actually becomes brighter than just about anywhere in the east:



So why am I bringing this up?  Over the year, sunset and sunrise times vary according to a sine wave, and we're just about to enter the period of the most dramatic change.  In one month, we can expect another 96 minutes of daylight.  Sunset happens about 1.6 minutes later each day.  With daylight saving time (March 8), most of us will probably enjoy another hour of waking sun each day. 

So, Northwest residents, armed with this knowledge, I urge you to use your early-spring manic cycle wisely.

San Francisco

I'll be in and around San Francisco from 1/22 to 1/29.  Just sayin'.

Harper's Index 2000-2008

I always skip to the "Numbers" (or is it "Figures?") section of TIME magazine before I read anything else. So  imagine my excitement when I found this huge list of figures, compiled by Harper's, for the Bush era:

http://harpers.org/archive/2009/01/0082319

It's a little bit factual, a little bit editorial, and a whole lot of sad.  I love this kind of format, though.  Numbers don't lie.

An Update

Since Tuesday, I have been more flu-ridden than I ever remember being in my adult life.  The last time I remember being this ill, the Princess Bride was a relatively new movie and I was being spoon-fed chicken noodle soup and drinking 7-up through a straw.  This time didn't go as well, beginning with a distinct lack of chicken noodle soup and eventually transforming into an annoying and expensive case of pneumonia.  There's a lesson to be learned, here.  However, I'm finally on the road to wellness, and for that I am grateful.

Moving on.

I'm excited to say that I finally reconfigured one of my favorite applications for any platform-- MobilePushr, a Flickr uploader for iPhone.  It's a stunning example of how high function can be met with an absolutely minimal interface.  It's a very simple program in concept (push a button, upload all photos that haven't already been uploaded, done) but its existence completely changes the way I use my cameraphone.  It just does exactly what I want it to do and nothing else.  The author exercised remarkable restraint by not including a bunch of useless features.

I am still working at Old Town Computers and enjoying it immensely.  I'm also working on my web design side-project, XOdesign.  Yet, I am becoming wary of those guys who call themselves "Web Producers", wear business casual even though they work at home, and hammer out 15 identical Wordpress-based Web 2.0 disasters every day, then keep a blog about the newest trends in typeface.  I never thought I'd come close to becoming one of them, but here I am at the gates of the lamest Internet fraternity.

It's supposed to snow six inches tomorrow.  Maybe I'll take some pictures of that happening.

For being a city of 500,000+ people, Portland can feel pretty small. It can have all of the self-consciousness and introversion of a small school. The "Portland Bubble", I guess.

Take for example this pair of images-- Both taken from my couch at about 4:30 today:

Factcheck Dot Org

I'm a huge fan of Factcheck.org .

If you haven't heard of it already, it's a nonpartisan research organization that validates (or, more frequently, invalidates) claims made by prominent public figures. It truly is nonpartisan, going as far as to give Obama and McCain equal billing on their site and in their newsletter.  I think it can be hard for liberals to accept the format despite the obvious gravity of McCain's factual errors as compared to Obama,  but it's extremely important.

In a politcal climate often characterized by "facts vs. dogma", it's very easy for an organization like Factcheck.org to assuage its liberal readership by swaying to the left.  After all, facts are (at least in theory) the backbone of the liberal media.  Without facts, the left might say, there would be no Truth in reporting.  Yet Factcheck.org bites the proverbial bullet and doesn't actually suggest that facts make Truth.

That's Truth with a capital T.  

It's hard to overstate just how important it is to remember that the goal of facts isn't to achieve Truth.  Truth happens by manner of faith, not facts-- by persuasion, coercion, hypnosis, and trust.  Facts are useful as a means to that end-- to convince a more skeptical audience to believe in a bigger message, perhaps-- but they don't make Truth on their own.

Ideally, the media shouldn't be concerned with Truth; only facts.  And it is indeed when we see programs offering the Truth that we see the biggest factual errors.

New job

Hey, it looks like I'm working part time at OId Town Computers.  I'm pretty excited, since OTC is actually located inside of my favorite cafe, Backspace.  I'm getting paid to do something I was doing for free before (i.e. drinking coffee and fixing people's computers) so no matter what, I've come out ahead.

"Outsourced"

I watched an excellent movie last night called "Outsourced".  It's not very well-known, which I suppose makes sense considering that it's a lighthearted, American-style, romantic comedy about a subject that makes Americans extremely uncomfortable.  Worse yet is that it was (mostly) written and developed by an Indian staff, who take an ostensibly positive stance on outsourcing.  So, for obvious logistical reasons, the movie never got its due in the theaters.

As is often the case, the parts of the movie that made it unattractive to the studios are the same things that made it interesting, funny, and believable:  It's a travel/adventure movie without an us-versus-them mentality, it's a romantic comedy without silly hijinks or cheap laughs, and it's an American film where the ethnic leads are smart, independent, and worldly.  It's well-paced, has several interesting plot lines, and rarely succumbs to sitcom humor even when the situations are rife with opportunity.  Case in point:  It goes to India, and escapes with only a few digestion-tract jokes. 

Overall, the movie is smart, simple, clean, and polished.  From start to finish.  It's the romantic comedy version of a piece of high-end Scandinavian furniture.  I can't recommend it enough.

Bloggin'

A quick update before I hit the hay:

I've been mostly offline the past few weeks because of work and general business.  I know this sounds weird coming from me, but it's the honest truth.

I'm temping at Nike for the time being, fixing their Macintoshes.  I've met a lot of interesting folk, including the people behind the Nike+ system and many, many shoe designers.  The gig ends at the end of the week, though, so I'll be back out pounding the pavement while spending some quality time on my pet projects.

As ever, I'm looking to build my portfolio for web and graphic design.  Don't hesitate to ask if you're interested in building an online presence.

There's much more to come over the next few weeks pending unemployment.  Portland is still treating me very well, however, I still don't have a bike.  We'll see if I can't pick one up next week.

"Why Mariners fans are some of my favorites"

I just read this on USSMariner.com. I thought some of you out there might appreciate it.

--------------------------------------------------

"Why Mariners fans are some of my favorites"

And I'm completely serious when I say this. You guys are great, and I always get a kick out of reading this blog and USS Mariner.

I'm a Cubs fan and have been so since 1968. As such, I understand the futility of life and the joy of small victories (or even almost victories). As my bartender, another life-long Cubs fan of my generation, says: "You lose more often than you win in life, and being a Cubs fan prepares you for this."

The problem, though, is that most Cubs fans today don't understand this. They see the experience as some sort of amusement park ride, where there are going to be ups after the downs because there are supposed to be. They don't understand that sometimes, the downs are all you're going to get.

Which is why I enjoy reading this blog so much. The existential angst! The hopelessness and loathing! The Kierkegaardian dread! Plus, you do it so intelligently. Most sports blogs, sadly, are places for the lame of mouth and the halt of brain to feed their fixes. Here, and at USS Mariner, you not only roll Sisyphus' boulder up a hill, but can explain, using cold, hard logic, why it will fall down again. I shudder at the grandeur of this achievement.

And, to be honest, losing is probably more fun than winning. One appreciates the game more, and you don't run the risk of turning into a Yankees fan. The perfect example is the Red Sox, whose fans were crusty yet lovable New Englanders until just a couple of seasons ago. Winning, however, has turned them into insensitive louts who are no fun to be at a game with.

Awesome Show, Great Job!

My brother and I went to see Tim and Eric live last night in Seattle. We were way in the back so I didn't get many good pictures-- I figure I'm just going to link to a few that other people took and let them speak for themselves.

Is anyone out there in the beverage business?

I make a personal plea to anyone with the authority to do so:  Please start importing Sternburg (and Sternburg Diesel) to the US.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sternburg_Export

Thank you.

I think Ichiro will go down in the baseball history books as this generation's most important player, or at least the one that has the most influence on Baseball's future. I'd venture to say that Ichiro is important to the game than A-Rod,Gone are the days of 'roided-up hulkamaniacs like Mark McGwire who rack up huge OPS points via home runs. Not only are the drugs just not that good anymore-- the parks are less hitter-friendly, and (accordingly) there are fewer terrible pitchers.

The statistics are changing-- Not just the numbers, but the statistics themselves. Win expectancy is gaining ground, and overall defense is on the verge of becoming a tangible statistic. That is to say that a player's contribution won't be measured by batting average or number of home runs, but by the actual influence they have on a game's outcome.

I doubt any players understand this better than Ichiro.

Outfield defense is a tough one to understand. Certainly you can look at a player's fielding percentage, or their assists, but it doesn't really paint the whole picture. And then there's showmanship-- In Seattle, we remember players like Ken Griffey making spectacular, wrist-breaking, diving catches and often equate that with defensive success. Ichiro never dives for a ball, or runs face-first into the outfield fence to rob a home run. Yeah, he has the speed, but what makes him an elite outfielder?

He understands his ability, and recognizes that his team can't afford to lose him due to injury. He's said several times that it's not worth risking it unless the season's on the line, which, statistically, is absolutely true.

Anyway, enough about defense. Let's change gears and look at his batting graph:



Since Ichiro isn't a power hitter, I elected to use singles here instead of home runs. A quick side note is that while it's not on a graph, all-- yeah, 100%-- of his doubles come from pitches up in the zone. Also keep in mind that Ichiro is a lefty.

What do we learn?

1) He gets beaten by pitches out of the strike zone. Especially ones that are up-and-in and low-and-in.
2) Pitchers try to exploit this by pitching middle-and-in, where he doesn't have any problems taking them for balls. I'm not sure why this is. Maybe someone's not doing their scouting homework properly.
3) Ichiro gets a ton a singles from pitches that are up-and-in, inside of the strike zone. These are where he leans back and serves it into shallow left field.

Nobody really plays like Ichiro, and he draws a lot of attention because of it. Pitchers have a strategy for him, and while it doesn't really seem to be working, they're sticking to it perhaps because they don't know what else to do.

Baseball Stats: Part 2

Just for fun, I graphed out some 2007 data from players relevant to today's game.  Let's start with Adrian Beltre and Daniel Cabrera:




So.  What do we learn here?

First of all, right-handed Beltre doesn't chase as many low and away sliders as you might expect.  If he's going to get beat by a pitch, he's probably going to get beat by something up and in.  According to the other graph, this is something that right-handed Cabrera likes to do.  Expect strikeouts.

Cabrera also has excellent control and consistency around the edges of the strike zone. He stays low, and if he misses, he doesn't miss by much.

Here's another thing-- Cabrera doesn't give up home runs on the outsides of the plate.  Compare him to the M's starter, Carlos Silva:



If Beltre's going to hit a home run off of Cabrera, then, it's probably going to have 
be within that small central margin.  But he's got a much better shot at it than Richie Sexson, who swings a bit more freely:



I'm not using any pitch f/x data here, just location.  There's a lot more to be said when taking break and deception into account.  And obviously, pitchers (and catchers) are aware of these types of batting tendencies, and the smart ones will find a way to tilt the odds in their favor (note to self:  It would be interesting to analyze a pitcher's intelligence in facing different batters.  Maybe this will be a future update).

Baseball Stats: Part 1

It might not be common knowledge that nearly every Big League baseball park in America has a system that can track a pitch's movement, break, release point, starting/finishing velocities, and a host of other details.  And for some reason, Major League Baseball compiles and archives all of this data for public consumption on their website.  

And it's all for free!  I know, something for nothing.  It doesn't seem quite right, considering that this is the American pasttime and all.

Anyway, there's a ton of data to look at.  A ridiculous amount.  People analyze this stuff for a living and I don't think anyone's even scratched the surface of what it can reveal about the nature of the game.

Because the data is stored very inconveniently on the MLB servers (in a weird esoteric directory structure), the average fan effectively doesn't have access. And based on the way most MLB games are managed, I sort of doubt that even the experts have adequate access.  You see, the files are really only accessable to a small percentage of the population:



Baseball is different than many spectator sports because there are relatively few intangibles.  Every possible action is decided by some variant of bat-hits-ball, and now that we have access to the flight path of every pitch and how each individual batter reacted to it, there's room for a lot of insight that hasn't been made before.

The Church of ScientoIogy and Me

On April 12th, a group called Anonymous will be staging another worldwide protest against the shady practices of the Church of ScientoIogy.  

People who know me well already know about my run(s)-in with the Church and its affiliates.  Quickly stated, I support ScientoIogy as a faith-- Although I'm not religious, freedom of worship is an obviously vital part of free society, and the right is defensible in any discussion about freedom of speech.

The Church itself, however, has come to abuse my ideal of religious tolerance in a very contradictory way:  One that explicity promises superpowers for right price, forces "disconnection" with friends and family, twists copyright law to destroy splinter groups and silence dissenters.  The problem isn't the tenets of the faith, but the Church's power and savvy as a business to operate outside the law.  As a Church, they're not only tax-exempt, but immune to the sort of criticism that would normally provoke public outcry.

Fortunately, the ruse looks like it's coming to an end, as The Church of ScientoIogy is having more and more trouble flying under the radar.  This is largely a product of collaborative knowledge on the Internet and is, in my estimation, the first of many organizations facing the full brunt of Internet activism.  It's really an amazing effort-- During the last round of protests, over 150 showed up at the Church's headquarters in Florida.  There were thousands more protesters worldwide.

But the most interesting parts to me are the extremes it represents.  On one hand, there is Anonymous:  A group with no central leadership, no experience, no financial or political power, armed only with knowledge and a sense of making things right.  On the other hand:  The Church of ScientoIogy.

This is a perfect microcosm of what could happen on a much larger scale.  Even if you're not interested in the protests against the Church, they are setting a prescident for other (bigger) social issues.

I bought something weird

Call me crazy, but I'm kind of obsessed with computer keyboards.  I think it's for good reason, though-- I probably type more words on any given day than I speak.  Doesn't that make my keyboard worth obsessing over?

I use an IBM Model M keyboard that I bought off eBay.  Among enthusiasts, the Model M is king.  They have a fantastic "clicky" feeling to them, they're laid out perfectly, and they're nearly indestructable.  Mine was made in 1984, and it's as good as new.  Sadly, they've been more or less discontinued since 1992, in favor of cheaper, flimsier keyboards that are made to be replaced every few years.



Until yesterday. I thought it was impossible to improve on the Model M.  But check out what I bought for six dollars at Goodwill:



First of all, the styling is, like, awesome.  It's only missing some flames.  Also, It's USB, comes with an ergonomic built-in joystick, and inexplicably has some sort of wrist strap on the back.  For six dollars, It's breathtaking.

I think I'm going to attach a guitar strap to it and sling it over my back like some sort of digital mariachi renegade. Think Antonio Banderas but worse shape and way, way paler.

CNN and FOX's distorting lenses

Maluhia noticed something funny while she was flipping through the channels yesterday.

CNN and FOX were simultaneously broadcasting John McCain's foreign affairs speech, in full, sans commentary.  Except for the overlay text, they looked like pretty much identical broadcasts.  But, there was a certain dissimilarity in the video feed.  See if you can spot the difference (sorry, it's hard to take pictures of a television):






CNN's broadcast is much, much sharper.  You can clearly see the details of McCain's face and combover.  It's not flattering-- He looks, well, worse.  FOX's broadcast is zoomed out, and slightly blurry.  The audio feed was also much different-- CNN sounded very tinny and shrill compared to FOX which sounded warm and resonant.

Granted, considering the other (more flagrant) examples of bias between these two networks, this isn't anything too groundbreaking.  It does remind us, though, to be aware of the many subtle ways televised news can attempt to effect certain judgements without even saying a word.

I don't like you anymore Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton on the state of the primaries:

"It'd be a great thing if we had an election where you had two people who love this country, who were devoted to the interest of the country and people could actually ask themselves who is right on these issues instead of all this other stuff which always seems to intrude on our politics."

I assume that the other person isn't Hillary.

Bill!  Remember when the whole country was happily united in grunge music, X-Files, and free Internet cash?  I loved the 90's, dude, and you were probably its most important hoarse-voiced, bulbous-nosed dignitary.  We used to be homies-- why are you borrowing from the republican playbook?

Clinton's Swing States

A recent Clinton memo to her supports claims the following:

"The path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania so if Barack Obama can't win there, how will he win the general election?"

Generally speaking, Clinton's approach to the Primaries is to campaign aggressively in the large swing states. Her logic implies that a strong showing in these states means a strong showing in the general election. While the argument seems sound, the general election is a very different election with very different voters.

Is this a good strategy? On a state-by-state basis, should the same candidate be able to woo democrats in the same proportion as the general electorate?

I've tabulated data from the 2004 and 2000 Democratic Party Primaries in order to better answer this question. I would have liked to include other contests, but it's (shockingly) difficult to find primary data from 1996 and before.

Blue indicates a win, red indicates a loss. Data comes from http://uselectionatlas.org/.

2004: John Kerry effectively clinched the nomination on Super Tuesday after runner-up John Edwards dropped out of the race, so I will only examine the pre-Super Tuesday swing states.



The numbers show that there is no distinct correlation between Kerry's performance in the primaries and in the general election. Though he virtually swept the swing states when campaigning against Edwards and Dean, he only won 8 out of 13 versus George Bush.

2000: Like 2004, this was also decided after Super Tuesday. Bill Bradley withdrew from the race after a resounding defeat by Al Gore. However, there were fewer swing states available during this election, so the sample size is much smaller:



Al Gore's commanding primary victory in Ohio (a state that Hillary has made the cornerstone of her campaign) resulted in a clear defeat during the general election. The only "battleground" state he won in both contests was Iowa, by only the slimmest of margins.

So what does this mean for Hillary?

The data shows that the elections are not simply decided by the state, but by the race at hand. Claiming to be able to win certain states simply by the primary results is a serious error, as common sense would indicate.

One last thing: Hillary's campaign promises a strong showing in swing states. But the current list of swing states doesn't seem to agree:



Not only is Hillary's logic flawed, she's not even winning the swing states! Of course, her campaign realizes this, and has declared that the states she lost are the "latte-sipping" boutique states. Regardless, even latte-sippers have delegates, and those delegates count at the national convention.



Notes:
There's obviously a lot more that could be done with the election data, but I'm no statistician.

I'm only working with popular vote numbers-- Which, as we learned in 2000, is not always a clear indicator of who wins the contest.

Night Skiing

I went up for some leap-night skiing on Friday.  What started out as a beautiful day (I could clearly see Mt. Hood from my window at 2:00pm) turned into a huge snowstorm with 30mph winds.  It was interesting, especially without goggles. 

Pictures are up at Flickr.

Countdown until real Internet: Two days

I've been using Tinyproxy to route my computer's internet connection through my [hacked, TMobile] iPhone.

In theory, it should be good enough for a few days-- EDGE speeds top out around 250k/sec downstream. In practice, though, TMobile's T-Zones network is terrible at maintaining two connections simultaneously. So for me it's a choice between instant messenger, IRC, GMail, etc., and actually being able to pull web pages.

My temporary solution has been to tunnel all traffic through an offsite SSH host (running on port 143 as to fool TMobile's proxy), which seems to help a lot.

I do have an old Powerbook with a broken fan and a broken memory slot. So I've used it occasionnaly at the local internet cafe, underclocking it so that it doesn't overheat, and navigating OSX using a hefty 128mb of built-in RAM. It's (surprisingly) not useful at all, even on a fast connection.

Anyway, this has been a good lesson in a jailbroken iPhone's incredible versatility. It's nice to know that the same device I used to record my blog in Europe can be used (in a pinch) as an EDGE proxy server. On that note, I'm looking forward to the iPhone SDK, which may or may not be released on March 6.

Alex's office: Wherin lies the world's worst computer setup

I haven't signed up for cable or DSL yet.  This is mostly because my apartment has excellent line-of-sight with several residential buildings.  There's enough wifi out there to seriously entertain thoughts of saving 35 dollars a month on having a dedicated connection.  

However, I've learned first hand that saving money on something doesn't necessarily increase its overall value-- Which leads me to a short tour of my new "office":

Let's start with my wireless antenna.  It's poked through a hole in the screen.  Since the cord has to run through the window, I can't close it completely, which makes the room colder.  The blue masking tape is to hold it in place in case of a gust of wind blows it open.




The other end of the cord runs to my computer, which, because of a power supply failure a year ago, now occupies a blue plastic storage container.  I didn't feel like buying a shuttle-branded PSU for five times as much simply to keep the case in tact.  



The rest of my computer is on the floor because I don't have a desk yet.



When I have guests over, I share the bootleg signal to my broken-down laptop (which has neither working speakers, fans, expansion RAM slots, or batteries) via ethernet, which in turn shares it over a wireless network called "The World's Most Ghetto Internet".



I mean, I'd get a job and buy some new equipment, but I'm almost proud of how terrible it is at this point.

The Return of Blog Title

Finally, I've made the important and momentous transition from homeless to homed.  

I just moved into a cozy little studio in Portland's Chinatown.  I love the spot-- It's everything I was hoping to find in a housing situation at a totally reasonable price-- but it's hard to get used to having a place of my own after so many months of transiency.

Maybe the biggest change is that I have some time (and space) to work on some of my pet projects.  In the coming weeks, I'll be getting started on a few interesting things that I'd like to blog about.  First comes the rebirth of the Cantenna, along with a number of other hardware hacks geared towards energy efficiency and home automation.  Energy conservation is important to me, and living in Portland (the greenest city in America in terms of renewable energy) offers me a good opportunity to live completely carbon-neutral.

Second will be the introduction of a real home page at alexose.com, where I'll be compiling a portfolio of my work in graphic and software design.  I'm starting to regret that I haven't archived my old projects, since there are many that I've put a lot of time and effort into.  This will be an attempt to better catalog and showcase my future work.

Lastly, I'll be blogging about some of the social and political happenings that are important to me.  We're currently in the middle of a very interesting presidential race-- The type that only seem to come around every thirty or forty years.  Certainly, it has the biggest potential for sweeping reform that I've experienced in my lifetime.  I'm also hoping to occasionally draw attention to certain corporations, groups, and individuals that I feel have been under-scrutinized or ignored by other forms of media.

As I mentioned, this is a big change for me.  I'm not quite used to keeping a regular schedule.  So, I can't promise that I'll be timely (or articulate), but hopefully I'll be able to more consistently write about some of the subjects that I hold dear--  And better yet, pique your interest from time to time.

State of the Alex

I've been pretty busy recently, with the holidays and moving to
Portland and all, so I haven't had time to do much writing on here.
Just wanted to tap the mic a few times and let everyone know I'm still
here.

Since I'm done travelling (for now), I'll be using this space for
posting random updates to my personal life and my thoughts about
high-profile celebrity breakups.

Temp Agency

kelly services

Comin' on Home

The Dubai airport is half shopping mall, half hotel, and half airport.

Thanks to the miracle of aviation, I'll be getting in to Seattle in
about 26 hours. That includes a seven hour layover in London (anyone
interested in a morning pint?). I've never been one to sleep on
planes, but this will have to be an exception. At least it's not
Hungarian.

I'm not sure how I feel about my trip coming to an end. On one hand,
I won't have the same feeling of personal freedom and self-reliance,
or the excitement of seeing new places and cultures on a daily basis.
On the other hand, I can buy Reces' Peanut Butter Cups whenever I want.

So it's absolutely time to come home for a while.

Once I get home, I'll make some longer posts and draw some conclusions
and post pictures and all that. After I sleep for two days straight,
of course. I have tons to write about Dubai (about my final day in
particular), so stay tuned.

National Day

I took the bus to Abu Dhabi today (only 15 dirhams for a slightly
unconfortable 2-hour drive). My plan was to get in at noon and spend
some time at the beach-- after Dubai traffic/bus overhead, I didn't
end up leaving until noon.

But it all worker out fine. I got in with enough time to walk around
the city and eat some delicious curry. For low-end restaurants, Abu
Dhabi is about half the price of Dubai. An entree, naan, and a lassi
came to around five dollars.

It's National Day in the UAE, which is a sort of fourth-of-july-on-
crack style celebration in all seven emirates. Everyone has the day
off (the weekend here is typically Friday-Saturday), and there are
various state sponsored festivites and marriment across the land.

It's a lot like the fourth actually, with the same kind of crazy flag-
waving and music-blasting that is probably confusing to foreigners.
Except instead of sharing the American obsession with fireworks, the
Emiratis decorate their cars in UAE colors and cruise back and forth
revving their engines and honking their horns. There's so much
revving at times that people's cars either backfire or erupt in a
cloud of black smoke. I saw a guy in an old Golf throw a rod while
barely moving. His hood was exploded out as if an angry bear were
trying to escape from the inside of his engine compartment.

So aside from that puzzling display of national pride, I'm a big fan.
More reasonable people take the day just to sit around, barbeque, and
smoke shisha in the park.

Whoa, I just saw someone wearing a burqa made out of a UAE flag.
That's a first (for me, anyway).

Also, it's pretty cool when two (or more) cars join forces and play a
song with their differently tuned horns. I've been hearing it off and
on all day, and I think I may have managed to grab a recording of it.

It's about 7:30 now, and I'm drinking coffee in the Marina Mall. I
walked all the way from the Al Wadi mall, mostly because the girl at
the Indian restaurant said it couldn't be done. Now I have to figure
out whether I'm going to try to stay in the Abu Dhabi hostel or take a
late bus back to Dubai.

Internet blogosphere update

Hello!

I'm writing this from the Rugby Sevens, a rugby tournament that Dubai
hosts every year. It's seven-man rugby, so it's not quite as
prestigious as the more traditional 15-man version (think Arena
Football versus NFL). It still draws a huge crowd, though-- mostly
expatriates who come to cheer for their home team. Scotland is very
well represented.

I've left the Hillards' house after my extended stay (thank you both
so much!). Now I'm staying with Jan in his apartment near Festival
City. So far, there haven't been any festivals. Unless you call
another massive, brand-new shopping center a "festival", in which case
there's one. I spent the day there yesterday.

I finally got my hands on a real Dubai bus map-- evidently a rarity
since I had to ask about five different offices before I found one.
It's two montha out of date, but it seems accurate enough. Either
way, it should ease my problems with limited mobility like an electric
scooter.

I've spent the majority of my free time just walking around the older
parts of the city. I've been amazed by how segregated it is.
Obviously, it's along economic lines, but since there are no
westerners in the lower classes, I can walk around some of these
neighboorhoods and not see another white guy. And now that I'm at this
rugby game, I can _only_ see white guys.

Since I've been here, I've seen exactly one white person on the bus
besides me, and I think he may have been an official for RTA.

Underlying it all, though, is that with a few exceptions everyone is
making more money than they're used to making. There's very little
structural violence (anthro alert) because the structure is relatively
generous versus the global market.

Anyway, I figure I have 5 more nights in Dubai before I leave for
Seattle. Any suggestions of what to do?

Gold Souk

I adventured down to the Gold Souk area today.  It's the older part of town where every other store is selling gold and silver jewelry.   It's neat to see some real stores, though, especially ones that could have been there for more than 5 years.

Right now I'm at an Internet Cafe that's a subsidiary of the restaurant I ate at called GOLDEN BURGER.  It's not the best quality, but for 80 cents an hour, who can complain?  On that note, the space bar is not workingverywellso I'mgoingtohave to finish thisuplater.

Thanksgiving

That was a very nice Thanksgiving.  If not a little different than most years.

I woke up on the late side (as usual), and had breakfast outside with Mike and Elaine.  We talked about the Thanksgiving party they'd planned (catered and with hired help-- whew), how many guests were going to show (25), and how late people normally stay (late).  Now that I had finally rested up, I decided to take a little adventure down to the Mall of the Emirates before the party started.  From here I wrote a short blog post about indoor skiing.  No, I haven't been yet.

Getting back proved to be challenging.  The buses are not quite as reliable as they claim to be, and with the added bonus of bumper-to-bumper traffic and 45+ asian workers trying to get on the same bus at every stop, it makes it almost impossible to catch a bus during rush hour.  Like I'm sure most tourists do, I ended up buying my way out of it.  After waiting for about two hours, I got a taxi home (which was quite reasonable in US terms...6 dollars or so), which put me back at around 7:00pm.  A bit late to the party, but nobody seemed to mind.

The guests were an eclectic mix of Europeans, Americans, Canadians, Australians, and a few Middle Easterners.  It actually reminded me of being back in a hostel, except obviously that everyone spoke English and were all a bit older.  It was interesting to see the sorts of careers people had in Dubai-- Most of the people there were friends of the Hillards through Emirates, so there were a lot of engineers and pilots.  Some were entrepreneurs, some worked in H.R., one was a professional horse breeder.  It seemed like everyone had been there for at least three years.  One person had lived in Dubai for 14 years--  A "permanent expatriate".  Interestingly, it didn't seem like anyone really was ready to call it home.  Most of the people I talked to planned to stay for another year or two before moving somewhere else.  Even the people that had been in Dubai for a long time agreed.

Mike and Elaine put on a great party.  Like any proper Thanksgiving, there was too much food and drink per the number of guests.  We shared some good conversations and some good jokes (remind me to tell you the one about the rabbit on drugs), made a few new friends, and eventually got too tired to keep eating.  The last person left at about 1:30, which I consider a success.

Update

I haven't written much recently due to a combination of no Internet/computer/battery life/time, but I promise to catch up on my missed entries.

Right now I'm sitting in one of the restaurants overlooking Ski Dubai. There are people sliding down the hill on long, flat appendages attached to their feet. There are actually quite a few good skiers out there, considering it's in the desert.

Ski Dubai is just part of the massive shopping mall that is Mall of the Emirates. It's about four times the size of Bellevue Square by the looks of things.

Getting here via public transportation is interesting. A bus drops you on the opposite side of a 6-lane freeway, which doesn't have an overpass for miles. So, apparently you have to either jaywalk or take a taxi to the other side. I don't really recommend jaywalking across 6 lanes of Dubai traffic, but it can be done.

I've never seen a city that's less friendly to pedestrians than Dubai.

Istanbul: The Funicular

I came across a type of transportation I'd never seen before in Istanbul called a funicular.  The concept is simple:  It's basically an elevator with a counterweight, except that instead of an elevator with a counterweight it's two equally sized cars on rails going up/down a steep hill.  The cars are connected by a single cable, and at the top of the hill there's a very large wheel that hoists them back and forth.  It's not used in many places, since you can only have two cars (one up, one down) and that usually only means two stops.  Moreover, it's only efficient on very steep hills, so they don't show up in many large cities.

That being said, the funicular in Istanbul was by far the best part of their public transit system.  It cost about $1.30 to ride it one stop, and it was worth every penny.

Comic Signs

You know that whimsical, curvy, sans-serif font that's just perfect for captioning photos of your cats? The one that distinguishes between team-building exercises and items of import? I'm sure you've seen it-- The font called Comic Sans. Like influenza, Comic Sans is ubiquitously common and despised. Some have even gone as far as to call for its complete banishment from planet Earth.

Fortunately, in North America, Comic Sans' popularity has faded along with Windows 95. Of course, the high standard of living that we enjoy in the US and Canada does not exist everywhere on earth. For example, I'd estimate that Dubai is about 10 years behind in Roman font technology.

On that note, please enjoy these shining examples of Comic Sans usage and hilarious English:

Istanbul: Scams

It's no secret that Istanbul is full of scam artists, especially in
the old town/museum districts. It's a city of 16 million people with
huge wage discrepancies and an endless supply of naive tourists-- and
while the police do their best to keep things orderly, there just
aren't enough of them to babysit every visitor. So while I loved
seeing Istanbul, it's not a good place to just sit around and relax.
It's very difficult to blend in with the locals, so you're constantly
a walking target.

Mostly, Turkish vendors will be unusually forceful in trying to sell
you their goods. They realize that tourists are easily intimidated
into spending money, and are polite enough to easily keep on the line.
If you seem particularly naive, you'll be hassled even more. The
best way to avoid this is as follows:

-If you want to just look at something, don't stop. If you stop, the
storekeeper will come out and hassle you.
-Don't point at anything. If you point, the storekeeper will come out
and hassle you.
-If someone shouts at you, don't acknowledge them.
-If someone asks you a question, don't answer them.
-If someone grabs your arm, shake them off and keep walking.
-If something doesn't add up, just keep walking.
-Don't be afraid of hurting anyone's feelings.

I was physically pulled into booths several times before I realized
how obvious of a target I was, with my backpack, sunglasses, stopping
and looking at everything. Once I wizened up a little bit, going to
the markets was much more pleasant.

But the vendors are only part of the problem. The most famous and
well-orchestrated scams have to do with price disputes. For example,
a girl (or sometimes a couple) will take up a conversation with you,
pretending to be tourists. They'll go to great lengths to show you
that they're "authentic", including taking you out to dinner or buying
you a drink somewhere. At some point, they'll suggest that you go to
this cool local club they found, which will be a ways out of the main
drag (away from the police), and unusually empty inside. You'll buy
one or two drinks, and the bill will come back with something like a
two thousand dollar sum. When you complain, they'll force you to the
nearest ATM to withdraw as much money as you can so you can pay their
bill.

Why not just straight up kidnap you? Because this way, it can go down
on paper as being a pricing dispute, which I guess is a lot easier to
defend than a kidnapping.

Some people from my hostel were involved in a similar scam, but they
were able to recognize what was going on before it was too late, so
they escaped on foot back to a more crowded area.

I was fortunate enough not to end up in the middle of any scams. The
nearest I came was when a food vendor offered to give me my sandwich
for free if I came back and bought another one tomorrow. It seems
reasonable enough, since the sandwich was only like 50 cents anyway--
but when it's the only place open in a 100 yard radius, you have to
wonder. I didn't accept (I was leaving the next day anyway), but what
I assume would have happened would be that I'd take the free sandwich,
and as soon as I walked around the corner a "police officer" would
have demanded that I pay a fine of some arbitrary amount because I
stole from the restaurant.

It's really not as bad as I'm making it out to be. The vast majority
of tourists don't end up getting scammed. Nevertheless, you will
enjoy Istanbul a lot more if you can avoid these situations.

Bucharest

I just noticed that I never wrote about Bucharest.

Bucharest is a big, gross, soviet-looking city with a lot of stray dogs. There's something charming about it, though. Maybe it's the fact that they don't seem to have any regulations for anything. Or that they sell 2.5 liter bottles of beer at the grocery store for $1.50.

All the Romanians I met were really funny and sarcastic. You'd expect a city made of grey and brown to be full of sad, quiet people, but that's not the case at all.

The hostel I was at was full of Americans. The two brothers from Utah I met on the train decided to stay there for a night as well. They actually are brothers-- 25 and 28-- who decided to travel together for two weeks because they have a friend that works for Delta. There were also a group of about 8 guys from Missouri that included a Mississipi transplant who had his house destroyed during Katrina, and one of Billy Idol's road managers.

I didn't end up seeing much of the city, because the one sunny day I ended up getting horribly lost and climbing on a random tram line (the 44) that took me into who-knows-where before I gave up and took it all the way back to the city center.

Istanbul

One interesting thing about the night train to Istanbul is that it gets to Turkish customs at about 4:00am. Even if you're capable of getting a good night's sleep, it's impossible-- by law. You have to get off the train, wait outside in the cold, spend 15 euro for a tourist visa, then wait in line before they stamp your visa.

On the plus side, I have some really cool stamps now.

I got into the main station at around 10:00, parted ways with my travel partners, and struck out to find the hostel. Sultanahmet, the old part of town, is relatively small, so the hostel would be been about 20 minutes by foot. I got a little bit sidetracked, though. I ended up going through the Grand Bazaar, seeing some cool mosques, and going through some weird old neighborhoods.

I think Istanbul has an unfairly bad reputation for being dirty. From what I've seen so far, the city's totally immaculate.

Night train part 5

I've experienced a strong regression towards the mean with the last two night trains. After tonight, my overall experience might actually be _above_ average.

Since I was late to the station, I didn't have enough time to stop at the grocery store (travel essentials #4: always carry food and water with you) and ended up getting on the train with nothing to eat. There's no restaurant on the train itself-- it's just a bunch of sleeper cars and an engine-- so buying food on the train isn't an option. Combined with skipping breakfast, it could have very easily turned into an unintentional hunger strike.

Fortunately, my roommates on the train (two Romanian-speaking French girls, a Bulgarian woman, and an actual Romanian woman) had planned ahead much more effectively and ended up making me an awesome sandwich, giving me water, and translating all of the conductor's
announcements. All this happened as if it were totally normal. They were just happy they could help. Meanwhile, I was so astonished that a random group of strangers would go out of their way to help me (without even having to ask) that I was trying to think of ways to repay them. They didn't listen, though.

I've accepted a fair bit of charity in the last few weeks. It's never a good feeling to be in some stranger's debt, but it's very cool to know that even if you find yourself in a bad situation in another country, there are people that will help you unconditionally.

Anyhoo, the train I'm on reminds me of a large, wheeled tin can. From the top bunk, I can actually hear the rain against the roof. Also, I'm not completely sure about this, but I think the WC just empties directly onto the tracks below.

The good news is, there's only about a dozen people on the whole train. I have a room to myself that I've taken over. The door even locks from the inside. I'm leaving it unlocked though because I don't want a confrontation with the border patrol.

I'm starting to see things written in Cyrillic, which means I must be in Bulgaria. I'll write more later!

Blogger in Training

I'm writing this from my comfy, 5-foot-long couchette on the 371 Ister.  It's about 7:30 AM Romanian time.  I slept pretty well considering what I was up against--  Well enough anyway to reverse my position on night trains for the time being.

I shared a room with five Romanian teachers who were coming back from a  conference in Budapest.  So I can cross that off my list.  

Fortunately for me, one of them was an English teacher, who despite never living in the US or the UK spoke perfectly with a slight trace of a british accent.  I asked her about Romanian (it's a romance language, very closely related to Italian), and it turned out that her daughter had worked in Dubai for about three years, so we talked about that.  Anyway, it was really nice to finally get to talk to a local in depth about something.  She was probably a little too old for me (60?), but...

There are a couple of American bros (literally brothers) who have friends in the airlines so they're taking a two-week backpacking trip through Hungary and Romania.  They work in a resort town in Utah as airport shuttle drivers, I think.  They're a little older than me, but very similar in their motivations for getting travelling.

Their room only has one other person in it, but I actually got the better end of the deal because that one person happens to be a Romanian guy that can't stop talking about religion.  I actually had to bail out of that room after about thirty minutes, even though the brothers seemed cool.

Anyway, It's been a much better experience than my previous three train rides.  

The Romanian countryside is lurching past at 30 miles per hour or so.  We're starting to come out of the mountains now, so the snow is starting to give way to that wonderful eastern Europe brown.  It looks a little like Borat's village, but raining.

If you catch my [genetic] drift

One thing I noticed about Hungary: Cleft chins are very popular
here. Definitely in style.

With how many humans there are in the world these days, It's weird to
think of a time where little unadaptive traits like that could
randomly show up. Why wasn't it something else? Like cleft lips?

Budapest

Last day in Budapest!

I went to the train station today at around noon and bought a ticket
for Bucharest. It's another long train ride tonight, but at least
this time I'm confident I know what I'm doing. I'm looking forward to
getting into Bucharest. It's supposed to still have a lot of Soviet
influence. Also, I've got a nice hostel booked. And I'm just that
much closer to Dubai.

My Australian friends, Hugh and Lucy, left for Vienna, so I'll have to
find some other englIsh-speakers to harass. Maybe I'll find some on
the train! Who knows.

After they left, I went around the city and took pictures of
buildings. As far as buildings go, Budapest has some pretty amazing
ones. The parlament buildings make the ones in London look silly by
comparison.

Amerilounge (tm)

For some reason, everyone either went to sleep or left the hostel.
It's about 9:30 PM, and Monday Night Football is on television for
some reason. I'm watching the Seahawks steamroll the 49ers. It's
dubbed in Hungarian, but that doesn't matter-- the game speaks the
international language of "zero first downs in the first half".

Too bad the other Seattlites are out, they might like to see this.

Blogapest

I took a walk up "Castle Hill" today. It's either taller than it
looks, or I am not in very good shape. Getting to the top was worth
the effort, though-- There's lots of ridiculous statues wrestling
dragons and showing off their new crosses to the whole city. The very
tippy-top has a castle on it. Except, it's a fake castle that's never
had any royalty living in it. Presumably it was used for defensive
purposes but I think they might have just made that up so it wouldn't
seem so fake.

I think I managed to be outside in the only two cloudy hours of the
whole day. It also managed to snow on my a little bit.

As for now, I'm back in the hostel getting warm and contemplating a nap.

Tired in Hungary: Part 2: A Photojournal

Getting from the train station to the hostel was another unwelcome
adventure. This time, I think, it is probably best explained through
pictures:

It took me over three hours to find the entrance to the hostel even
though I'd found the cross streets in less than ten minutes. It
didn't help that the written directions ended at "Walk five minutes
towards the river," and didn't include a photo of the building, or
that the borderline microscopic sign they had posted was only visible
from three feet away. Once inside the main courtyard, there's another
small sign (not visible in the dark) that points you to the "second"
floor, which apparently means the "fourth" floor, up a dark staircase.

I'm not bitter, I swear.

Tired in Hungary: Part 1

Travel essentials #3:  When something looks too cheap to be true, it is*.

 

*Unless you're talking about kebabs.

 

The 14 dollar ticket I bought wasn't actually a ticket at all, but a reservation for a couchette.  I realized this at the last possible second when my Yugoslavian train-friend pointed it out after a long discussion about President Bush and Michael Moore.  I'm glad I got the political discourse in, but I'm not sure it was worth the 14 dollars I spent for the useless reservation and the stress of what followed.

 

I packed up all my things and jumped off the train a few seconds before the doors closed, back into another snowy Prague midnight with no real ideas for what to do next.  I thought about going back to the information desk to complain about being sold a reservation with no ticket, but I wasn't too keen on looking any stupider.  Fortunately, it's still possible to buy tickets at the counter as long as there are trains leaving, and the night train to Bratislava had been delayed an hour.  I bought a ticket (a more reasonable 50 dollars) that would eventually connect me to Budapest.

 

This time, however, I didn't get a reservation for a couchette, even though I asked for one.  I guess I'm still not sure how the system works.  Certainly none of the "english-speaking" customer service employees could explain how.  Each time I'd ask, I'd receive a grammarless volley of english words and a smug smile as if to tell me, "Hell yeah, I just answered your question so perfectly that I won't even attempt to clarify." 

 

That's a danger of Central Europe.  While there are lots of English speakers, their confidence belies their ability. 

 

I made friends with a couple of Brazilian Londoners who were in a similar situation.  These guys were really, really awesome.  They were studying in London to improve their English (which was already very good) and had decided to spend a few weeks to check out Central Europe.  Even though we were all stuck in the cold waiting for trails, they were still somehow having a good time.  Maybe it was because it was the first time they'd seen snow, but it helped my mood out a lot.

 

Anyway, they only rode the train part of the way (they were going to Vienna), but I got to enjoy the full eight hours to Bratislava.  The connecting train was also delayed about two and a half hours.  But hey, I made it.

 

So to conclude, I would compare yesterday's train ride to the Patriots/Colts game this year.  No matter what-- even if it lasted 14 hours and was painfully boring-- it was going to have a lasting impact on the rest of the season.  For Peyton Manning, this means throwing six interceptions.  For me, I think it means Dubai is going to be my final stop. 

 

There are some logistical reasons behind this, too, including the fact that I don't have the right immunizations for Southeast Asia, but it mostly comes down to a newfound joy in not having to ride trains or buses every few days.  So, I'm going to have to save that leg of travel for next time.

 

 

Czeching out

My train for Budapest leaves at 11:00 tonight.  I was smart enough to reserve a couchette this time.  It came to 300 KC, which is around 14 dollars.  Very nice!

 

We had a good time last night sitting around a square table and trading travel stories.  There's the two Australians who I'm meeting tomorrow in Budapest, some canadians, and an American expatriot.  Also Lou, an English dude, who appears to be some sort of bizarro me.  He's into cars from the 60's and 70's, Elliott Smith, dislikes clubs, and is vegetarian.  Ok, that last part isn't completely similar but you get the idea.  Actually, I'm supposed to be meeting him and his girlfriend Louise for dinner, but I don't know where either of them are. That's fine, though, I just bought some more lentils.  Oh, another english guy named Adam (from Manchester) is a guitarist trying to make it big in an acoustic rock group. 

 

Today I walked around the city for about 6 hours in the rain.  It was worth it, though, because I ended up seeing some really cool things.  Prague is the first European city I've been to so far that isn't totally flat-- And hiking up some of the surrounding hills makes for awesome views of the city.  I saw most of the tourist things before it got dark and I decided to call it quits and ride the metro (ticketless) back to the hostel, where I'm at now.

 

Anyway, I'll post again once again to Budapest.

 

 

I'm great at hearing accents

To the English girls: "So, you're Australian?"

To the Argentinian guy who looks just like Justin Timberlake: "So, you're French?"

 

If that's not embarassing, I don't know what is.

 

I met up with some more Australians tonight who happen to be going to Budapest at the same time I am.  One of them's a semi-pro cricket player (I think?), the other is a semi-pro waitress.  Being the social predator that I am, I booked two nights at the same hostel they're at. 

 

One of my roommates is a Tufts graduate who grew up in Boston.

 

That's all!

Blogue

I see why people love this city.

 

I went on a short adventure today to try to find a cheap microphone to use with Skype.  Unfortunately, I didn't come across any electronics stores, but I happened upon a cheap Supermarket called Norma.  Norma is the perfect name for this place, in that it's not quite "Normal".

 

The weirdest part was just the pace of the store.  Everyone seemed to be in slow motion.  I supposed I'm used to the frantic style of grocery shopping that happens at home, but really, I think the people I saw must all still studying the labels on soup cans.  Curiously, most of the people there were only buying one or two items, but they were using jumbo-sized shopping carts to wheel them around in.  Also inexplicable was that I didn't see anyone in the store under 50, except for the employees. 

 

I ended up buying 5 bottles of Czech beer and enough good food (including an avocado and some nice cheese) to last me for the next few days, which cost me around six dollars.

 

That's not to say that everything here is ridiculously cheap-- If you buy the brands you're familiar with, you end up spending about the same as you would in the US of A (I think Coca Cola is a good metric- A two liter bottle costs about a dollar and half, roughly the same as the states).  It's just that the cheap alternatives are very cheap.

 

As I was walking back to the hostel, I saw that there was a small cliff on the other side of the river, overlooking the northern part of the city.  I put my food in the fridge and decided to trek up it.  I had to illegally cross a trains-only bridge on foot, but nobody said anything so I assume that sort of thing is common.  Also, there was no path up to the top-- I just scrambled up the side as best I could.  I'm so glad I made it to the top, though.  Right as I got there, the clouds broke for about 10 minutes.  I could see all of Prague (including the Prague Castle, my hostel, and that weird monument that I don't understand yet) from where I was standing. 

 

Then I went back and made myself lunch and drank a 20-cent beer.

 

What's not to like?

Prague

Prague!

I'm so happy to finally be here. I got in at about 9:30 and walked
around the city in a train-induced stupor. The sun was out in
defiance of the crummy weather forecast, and it was a pleasant 45
degrees. I had a rough idea of where the hostel was, but decided to
take the scenic route instead:

Unfortunately, I didn't take any pictures because my phone was nearly
out of batteries. But I'll get a few tomorrow.

I'm also happy that I had the foresight to book three nights at the
Plus Prague hostel. Out of the 500+ beds, it seems like there are
only about 100 people here at the very most. This means I have the
sauna and the pool to myself most of the time. Also free internet and
wifi. I haven't attempted to socialize, since I'm still under the
weather, but it seems like it's mostly North Americans and
Australians, with a smattering of French and Czech.

I'm going to bed a little early tonight. I don't think this cold is
anything 12 hours of sleep can't beat.

Amsterdam: The Dutch

I'm usually not one to make generalizations about groups of people.

Except for the Dutch.

Before I spent time in Holland, I had an opinion of Dutch people being extremely forward-thinking owing to their tolerant social policies. This would seem logical, given that Amsterdam is, well, Amsterdam. But things are not quite what they seem. The Dutch themselves are actually very conservative, libertarian-type thinkers. Most tellingly, although Amsterdam is famous for its drug tourism, only 9% of the Dutch natives admit to having used Marijuana. Compared to the 33% of Americans that have In fact, it's actually "illegal", but tolerated through local law. There are plenty of restrictions, of course-- Shops aren't technically allowed to advertise cannabis (which is why they're all called "coffeeshops"), and they're only allowed to have a certain amount in the store.


The Dutch have a long history of this. It used to be that when Catholics were persecuted in Europe, the Dutch would again turn a blind eye. Catholics built "secret" churches in the top stories of residential buildings-- often very elaborate with organs and enough space for 200 people or more. Although the law required Amsterdam to close down known Catholic churches, the police would just sort of pretend it didn't happen.

But this tolerance wasn't / isn't born of a desire to improve people's lives. Rather, many of the Dutch Catholics were powerful businessmen, and were sometimes very wealthy. It just so happened that their economic impact held much more sway than the opinion of their European neighbors. Such is the case with any questionable-yet-profitable industry in Holland. Money always seems to have the final say.

You'll notice that helping mankind isn't part of the Dutch credo. In fact, they seem to harbor a lot of resentment for fellow man. Like any large city, Amsterdam has the rather unsavory problem of dealing with public urination. Whereas many cities have installed public toilets that are open at night, Amsterdam's approach is to place small urine-deflecting plates in certain dark corners that will angle a purpetrator's leavings back towards his pant legs. Annoying, yes, but certainly not a deal-breaker. Except that until very recently, many of these were also electrified.

Public accomidations in general are in short supply. Benches are rare, even in parks. Most of the comfortable places to sit (ledges, windowsills, etc) have a row of spikes that would cause the gluteal equivalent of "severe tire damage" if someone were unfortunate enough not to see them. If you try to sit in some cafe's unused outdoor seating, the employees will come out and bother you.

So, in conclusion, the Dutch aren't actually very tolerant. Tall, yes. Tolerant, no.

Forever 18

The "Forever 21" brand of girls clothing is called "Forever 18" here.
That got me wondering about age as a social construct. An 18 year old
in the States is in no way qualified to be a spokesperson for hip,
young, budget conscious fashion- So why is she here?

I wonder if other parts of the world have also changed the name
accordingly. Is it called "Forever 43" in France? "Forever 10" in
Japan? Clearly, further studies are needed.

(Did you hear that, Carson Grant people?)

Re:

Ok, I had a beer and some tea and m feeling better about Munich.

I moved into the corner of the Wombat Hostel without anyone saying anything. I even slept there for two hours! All things considered, this could have turned out a lot worse.

I found a winco-esque supermarket called Albi that sells good German beer for 25 cents. I also hooked myself up with a massive baguette and cheese. And salami. I am a bad vegetarian :(

Now that I'm not I'm such a bad mood I've been able to take in some things about the city that are kind of interesting. Munichers (muenchkins?) consider it the real capitol city, and also think it has the best art and culture. Unlike Berlin, it was rebuilt almost exactly like it was after it blew up during WWII.

People here also seem to identify with Bavaria more than Germany. This would make sense aftet hearing the german guy on the train to Amsterdam straight up say "I'm from Bavaria". You'd be surprised how different all the brands are and everything-- different beers, different chips, different detergent.

Today I ordered an espresso that came with Bavarian whipped cream. It's not overrated.

Ok, gonna cross post this one, too.

Alex

>
>
>

Munich

Don't go to Munich unless it's Oktoberfest.

Helltrain 2000

I figured out why my train tickets were only 29 euro! Let's just say there is a crucial difference between a "couchette" and a "sleeperette". It's going to be an interesting 36 hours, to say the least.

I'm hanging out in the dining car in my best effort to socialize, but everyone here is speaking German. I mean, I'm sure they speak English also but I don't want to get in their way. Hopefully someone will decide that I look interesting and come talk to me. If this doesn't happen I will just keep saying "Du ist ein kindergarten, ja?" and other conversational phrases.

At least I've still got an iphone to keep me company. Nobody stole it from me in Amsterdam.

To be honest, it's hard to be excited about the next couple weeks because of how much effort it will take to see everything in such a short time. As you know, I am debilitatingly lazy. The good news is that you'll have a lot more boring pictures of buildings to look at.

Oh, that reminds me! I tried to get a picture of a Dutch person riding a bike with no hands down a busy street while texting, but it was too dark to really see what was going on. It's very common, though, so you'll be able to see it for yourself if you come to Holland.

I am writing a short essay on the Dutch that I'll post sometime soon. To generalize, they are a silly people, and not only because of their hilarious wooden shoes.

I'm going to crosspost this to my blog, because, why not? Also I don't feel like retyping everything.

Ok, time to see what kind of sleep I can pilfer out of this trip.

Write back soon!
Alex "Tired Thumbs" Ose

Off to Munich

I stayed at Dave's place last night and got my first full night's sleep in almost a week.  That (and a couple more gallons of green tea) will definitely help fend off cold #2.  Supposedly, it's going to snow while I'm either in Munich or Prague.  I'm looking forward to getting on the road, though, even if it means a slightly compromised immune system.

 

I'll have plenty of time to write while I'm on the train, so expect some decent updates over the next few days.

Update

Sorry for the lack of updates, everyone.  I haven't really gotten much quality computer time until today.

 

Amsterdam is an amazing city.  The last few days I've been totally content just walking around and looking at the architecture.  One of the things that sticks out is the forward-leaning buildings.  They're actually designed that way-- It's so they can more easily hoist large objects up the front wall without it swinging back and forth and breaking the windows.  Because everything is so narrow and vertical, it's the only way people move in and out of their apartments.  I took a free walking tour with Sam the Australian two days ago, so I'm basically an expert in the city.

 

I can't really recommend The Flying Pig Hostel.  While it's located right in the middle of the city, there are certain things about it that make it  undesirable for backpackers.  Number one, of course, is the price.  It's almost more than twice as much per night as the hostel I was at in Berlin (besides a few basic amenities like wifi) is much less comfortable.  There's a ton of security in the front entrance (two locked doors and a turnstile) and a strict "no guests" policy.  This ends up leading to people only hanging out with other people at the hostel-- No locals, other backpackets, etc.  Plus, people usually book the place over a month in advance.  Plus, it's Amsterdam, so it's kind of full of Frat Bros looking to have a good time.

 

Among the cool people I've met, though, are another group of Australians (from Sydney, this time), a dreadlocked Brazilian who was deported from his home in Florida because he was caught growing cannabis, a recent high-school graduate from Montana who had been travelling by himself for two months (he tracked down some long-lost family in a remote part of Norway), a French lady looking for an apartment in Amsterdam. 

 

Right now I'm about to head out of this hostel for good and spend the night at Dave's apartment.  He's bailing me out big time, since there are no other available rooms in the city.

 

Tomorrow:  Munich.

Plans

I've figured out my plans for at least the next four weeks:

 

Nov 6th - Night train to Munich

Nov 7th-  Night train to Prague

Nov 11th - (night?) Train to Vienna

Nov 13th - Zagreb

Nov 15th - Budapest

Nov 16th - Bucharest

Nov 17th - Istanbul

Nov 20th - Dubai

Dec 5th - Bangkok?

 

These plans will probably change somewhat, but that's the intended path.

 

Amsterdam

Jacob and I made it into Amsterdam last night at about 7, but didn't make it to the Flying Pig until 8.  It's only a 5 minute walk from the train station so this is not something to be particularly proud of.

 

During the 55 minutes when we were not walking to the hostel, we were wandering around the Red Light district with no map or directions other than a vague idea of where it was supposed to be.  Things got more complicated when we asked some random homeless guy where it was, and he pointed us down a fairly unsavory alleyway.

 

Of course, travelling around with enormous backpacks and suitcases after dark in Amsterdam is never a good idea, but we took it to a new level by looking obviously lost on a random street two blocks from the center of the Red Light district.  A Columbian guy attempted to pickpocket us by trying to start a fight, so we ducked into a clothing store that was technically closed.  Fortunately they let us stay there until the guy went away, and I got to speak more French with the employees.

 

Anyway, we made it to the hostel, dumped our stuff in the room, then met up with Travis and Dave at the University (about a 20 minute tram ride) where we went to a halloween party.  Halloween is less of a children's holiday in Europe.  Almost all the students at the bar had elaborate costumes, face paint, etc.  It's good to see young people actually making an effort towards something.

 

Dave and Travis are doing well.  They love the city and (aside from a little problem with bedbugs) their accomidations at school.  Like most European countries, there are laws about student housing standards.  Pretty cool.

 

Jacob and I missed the last tram back to the hostel, so we caught a (three euro!) night bus back to the city center, and called it a night around 2:30.  I got up this morning and had a very dry breakfast, met some other hostel dwellers, and hung out in the lobby.  Oh, the lobby is by far the best of the hostels I've stayed at.  There's a little raised area where you have to take off your shoes and sit on these big cushions overlooking the street and the rest of the entrance.  It's impossible not to meet people here.  And aside from all the bros, the people make good conversation.

 

So, today:  Make the largest possible quantity of soup with the resources at hand.

 

I'm just feeling no real need to be ambitious after last night.

Fwd: Sup?

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Alex <alexander.ose@gmail.com>
Date: Oct 31, 2007 8:22 PM
Subject: Re: Sup?
To: Gregg Ose <greggose@mac.com>

Hey bro.  I'm on the train to 'sterdam right now (that's the cool thing to call it according to me).  Did you know that the trains don't have drinking water available?  Only mineral water that costs 2.80 euro.  Sure, they say the faucets are non-potable, but do they mean that?

"Rolling the dice" as I like to call it.

Jacob and I met up with an Australian guy that's also on his way to Amsterdam.  Very cool.  He's doing the opposite of my trip- going west instead of east.  He said a lot of good things about southeast Asia.  It looks like I might have to go to Viet Nam.

It's great how friendly and open everyone is when they're travelling. In fact last night I went out to a bar with a lot of people of different nationalities-  Swedish, French, Italian, Finnish.  I got to
speak a lot of French to the French twins.  They were very understanding about how bad I am.

Sadly we're leaving today right when we're getting to know folks.  Our roommate in Berlin was this totally rad German guy that decided to move to east Berlin by himself just to live the life.  Reminds me of what Amanda is doing in San Francisco.  Well, a little different.

So now I'm just watching the German countryside whizz by.  It's a change of pace from the Cascades Amtrak line.  It looks a lot different than Kelso, for instance.

Too bad to hear about the Huskies being crap this season.  I thought they might have had something going there.  Fortunately,  I don't have to be around it for a while.  Looks like I'm the real winner here!

This email is actually turning into a pretty promising blog post.  I'm just going to CC it in the reply.

I just passed what I think must be the main VW factory.  There are a startlingly large number of toyotas parked out front.  Uh oh.